On The Turf

Royal Ascot - Day Two 2026

·20 min read
On The Turf
ISSUE 117 Wednesday afternoon briefing
Ascot WED 17 June 2026 Good to Firm
7 races analysed · our 11-factor scoring · ROYAL ASCOT · DAY TWO
THE CHOSEN CARD
Ascot
17.06.2026 14:30 FIRST RACE

OUR RECORD · 2026 FLAT SEASON TO DATE
+87.45pts
TOTAL PROFIT & LOSS
+43.70%
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
12/32
NAP RECORD
11/27
NB RECORD
OUR STRONGEST SELECTIONS
NAP · 17:35 Kensington Palace Stakes · Fillies' Handicap · 1m

Radiant Beauty

T: J Owen/J: Ryan Moore/5yo mare/OR 93

Advised 13/2
Stake 1.0 EW

Our strongest selection of the afternoon won over this course and distance only last month, making the running and quickening clear, and that came as part of four wins from her last seven starts; 13/2 is workable for the one proven course and distance winner in the field, and back on the same quick ground, with Ryan Moore taking the ride and the front-running tactics that brought out her best last time, this looks her race to win.

NB · 16:20 Prince of Wales's Stakes · Group 1 · 1m2f

Ombudsman

T: J & T Gosden/J: W Buick/5yo gelding/OR 126

Advised 6/5
Stake 1.5pts

Ombudsman won this race twelve months ago and returns off a winning warm-up, a dual Group One performer who is at his very best when the ground rides quick; 6/5 is acceptable for the form choice in a small but high-class field, and on today's fast surface the one rival who might have his measure, last year's Arc winner, is the one the market is letting drift.

Today's Highlights

THE SHORT STORY
BEST BET
Radiant Beauty
17:35 · 13/2 · 1.0 EW (2pt total)
BEST VALUE
No value play today. No selection reaches our value criteria.
LAY OF THE DAY
No lay today. No runner reaches our lay criteria.
MARKET MOVER
Archivist
Money has come for Archivist in the Royal Hunt Cup, shortened from 16/1 to around 11/2 on the back of a Meydan win. He did not head our figures, so we note the move rather than follow it.

The Card

7 RACES · 4 SELECTED, 3 PASSED
14:30 Queen Mary Stakes · Group 2 · 5f
79 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Victorious
4/1 79 · EXCELLENT

Victorious tops our card on raw figures, an Aidan O'Brien juvenile who already has a Group win to her name, but she is drawn low in a sprint where almost all of the last dozen winners came from stall twelve or higher, so we pass and let that draw bias settle rather than fight it.

CONSIDERED Velozee
16/1 · 75 GOOD

Next best on our scoring and drawn far higher than our top pick, which is the angle the trends reward here; the each-way option for anyone who wants a runner in a race we are content to watch.

15:05 Queen's Vase · Group 2 · 1m6f
74 · GOOD
SELECTION Del Maro
12/1 74 · GOOD

Del Maro edges our numbers, a stoutly bred Camelot colt the extra trip should help, but his price has drifted out to 12/1 while the money has gone to others, and our scoring barely splits the front of the race, so this staying contest is one to watch rather than back.

CONSIDERED Point Of Spain
8/1 · 71 GOOD

Next on our list and the Ballydoyle stamina nomination, beaten only in a hot Newbury handicap last time, though the market has cooled on him since the overnight show.

15:40 Duke of Cambridge Stakes · Group 2 · 1m
77 · GOOD
SELECTION Blue Bolt
3/1 77 · GOOD

Blue Bolt shades our numbers, last season's Sun Chariot runner-up back in good order, but Friendly Soul is all but level with her on our reckoning, and at around 3/1 there is no each-way safety net in a race this tight, so we step aside rather than force a marginal call.

CONSIDERED Friendly Soul
5/1 · 76 GOOD

Level with our top pick on the figures and from a yard with a strong record in the race; the one for anyone who wants to be involved, with the proviso that she needs to bounce back from a troubled last day.

16:20 Prince of Wales's Stakes · Group 1 · 1m2f
84 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Ombudsman NB
6/5 WIN 1.5pts

Last year's winner of the race, back off a winning prep and a dual Group One miler suited by quick ground, 6/5 is acceptable for the form choice in a select field of eight, and the fast surface today turns the one serious threat, the Arc winner, into a horse the market is easing.

CONSIDERED Minnie Hauk
7/1 · 75 GOOD

Next on our scoring and an Arc runner-up last autumn; note too the French raider Daryz, who sits outside our turf-flat scoring but is the live danger our numbers cannot price, and who is drifting on the quick ground.

17:00 Royal Hunt Cup · Heritage Handicap · 1m
80 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Linwood
9/1 EW 0.5 EW

Linwood heads a wide open field of thirty, the likely pacesetter from a workable draw for the Hannon yard, 9/1 is acceptable in a race our scoring reads as a genuine scramble with very little between the front rank, so we take a small each-way position and respect how open it is.

CONSIDERED Fifth Column
9/1 · 79 EXCELLENT

Level with our top pick at the head of a blanket finish; the sharply backed Archivist, our market mover, is the one to fear from outside our preferred pair.

17:35 Kensington Palace Stakes · Fillies' Handicap · 1m
85 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Radiant Beauty NAP
13/2 EW 1.0 EW

A winner over course and distance last time and successful in four of her last seven, 13/2 is workable for the proven track and trip winner in the line-up, with Ryan Moore taking the ride and the same fast ground today to bring out the best of her again.

CONSIDERED Alobayyah
10/3 · 74 GOOD

The well-supported favourite and our second pick, an unexposed sort who closed strongly into third behind our selection over this course and distance last time; the one to beat if she builds on that effort.

18:10 Windsor Castle Stakes · Listed · 6f
82 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Sergei Diaghilev
11/4 EW 0.5 EW

Sergei Diaghilev tops a competitive Listed sprint, an impressive Curragh debut winner for Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore, a pairing with a strong recent record in this very race, 11/4 is acceptable for the most likely winner on our figures and from a fair draw, with the step up to six furlongs on quick ground suiting a colt bred to see it out.

CONSIDERED Controlla
7/2 · 67 GOOD

Brings the best raw form in the field after going down narrowly in a Group Three, and she sets the pace; the figures say she is the danger if she gets an easy lead up front.

THE METHOD

Our eleven-factor scoring with multiple data points behind each. Every runner. Every race. Applied rigorously without exception.

11
Factors applied to every runner in every race, drawn from hard data
15+
Selection rules a runner must pass before being named
15+
Staking rules a selection must pass before being included
7
Considered alternatives surfaced today, for those who want to oppose the selection or build their own play

Today's advised stakes

5.5PT TOTAL OUTLAY · 4 BETS · 3 PASSES
TIMESELECTIONPRICETYPESTAKE
16:20 OmbudsmanNB 6/5 WIN 1.5pts
17:00 Linwood 9/1 EW 0.5 EW (1pt)
17:35 Radiant BeautyNAP 13/2 EW 1.0 EW (2pt)
18:10 Sergei Diaghilev 11/4 EW 0.5 EW (1pt)
Total advised stakes
5.5pts
Edited and published Wednesday 17 June 2026, 13:30 BST ·Prices correct at time of writing
Our 11-factor scoring, V10·an Overlay publication