On The Turf

Royal Ascot - Day Five 2026

·19 min read

We're coming out swinging on the final day of what has been an fantastic week!

On The Turf
ISSUE 120 Saturday afternoon briefing
Ascot SAT 20 June 2026 Good to Firm
GoingStick · 9.0 stands · 8.9 centre & far · 7.7 round · read 8.30am Saturday
7 races analysed · our 11-factor scoring · ROYAL ASCOT 2026 · CLOSING DAY
THE CHOSEN CARD
Ascot
20.06.2026 14:30 FIRST RACE

Your Saturday morning briefing, built on our 11-factor scoring.

OUR RECORD · FLAT SEASON 2026 TO DATE
+90.87pts
TOTAL PROFIT & LOSS
+45.44%
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
12/34
NAP RECORD
13/29
NB RECORD
OUR STRONGEST SELECTIONS
NAP · 15:05 Group 2 · 1m4f

Jan Brueghel

T: A O'Brien/J: Ryan Moore/5yo horse/OR 123

Advised 9/2
Stake 1pt EW (2pt total)

The strongest single case anywhere on the card, a proven Group performer back at a sensible mile and a half, 9/2 is fair, even allowing for Kalpana, who has beaten him over this course and distance and will go off shorter, but he tops our scoring by a clear margin in a small, select field, with the trip and the ground ideal.

NB · 17:00 Heritage Handicap · 6f

Realign

T: W Haggas/J: James Doyle/4yo/OR 97

Advised 9/1
Stake 1pt EW (2pt total)

Drawn on the favoured low side of a twenty-eight-runner cavalry charge and arriving off a ready win, 9/1 reads as fair each-way in a field this size, with several places on offer, and a routine rise after the win is the familiar shape of a horse still going the right way.

Today's Highlights

THE SHORT STORY
BEST BET
Jan Brueghel
15:05 · 9/2 · the strongest case on the card.
BEST VALUE
Catullus
16:20 · 15/2 · the draw, the form and the money all pulling the same way.
LAY OF THE DAY
No lay today. No runner reaches our lay criteria.
MARKET MOVER
Savage Mariner
Money has come for him from 28/1 into single figures ahead of the opener.

The Card

7 RACES · 7 SELECTED, 0 PASSED
14:30 Norfolk Stakes · Group 2 · 5f
74 · GOOD
SELECTION Carry The Flag
3/1 WIN 0.5pt WIN

Top of our scoring and the highest rated in the race, a prominent type who should get the perfect tow as the front-runners pressure each other, 3/1 is workable for the clear pick on our numbers, with Ryan Moore booked off a flawless recent record at the track.

CONSIDERED Savage Mariner
9/1 · 68 GOOD

Drawn high on the favoured stands' side and a clear second on our scoring, the each-way angle for those taking on the favourite at a much bigger price; the money has come for him from 28/1, and we take a small each-way saver.

15:05 Hardwicke Stakes · Group 2 · 1m4f
79 · EXCELLENT
SELECTION Jan Brueghel
9/2 EW 1pt EW (2pt total)

The strongest single case anywhere on the card, a proven Group performer back at a sensible mile and a half, 9/2 is fair, even with Kalpana, who has beaten him over course and distance and will go off shorter, but he tops our scoring by a clear margin in a small, select field with the trip and ground ideal.

CONSIDERED Santorini Star
18/1 · 73 GOOD

An each-way alternative at a big price, strong on the conditions profile, for those who want to play the wider field.

15:40 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee · Group 1 · 6f
71 · GOOD
SELECTION Kind Of Blue
18/1 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)

An each-way shot at a big price in a wide-open Group 1 sprint, consistent and proven over course and distance, 18/1 looks fair with the field size guaranteeing extra places, though he was held over this trip here last autumn by Lake Forest, so this is a place-chance play rather than a confident pick.

CONSIDERED Sajir
14/1 · 70 GOOD

A fraction behind on our scoring with the pick of the draw and a strong recent profile, the each-way alternative.

16:20 Jersey Stakes · Group 3 · 7f
74 · GOOD
SELECTION Catullus
15/2 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)

The strongest alignment of positive signals anywhere on the card, drawn high where seven furlongs here favours and fresh off a wide-margin win, 15/2 stays workable and the price has come in from 10s, which only confirms it, for a yard with a fine recent record in this very race.

CONSIDERED Saber Strike
13/8 · 71 GOOD

The unbeaten favourite and clear second on our scoring, but the slowest of the principals on the clock, which is why we take him on at the prices.

17:00 Wokingham Stakes · Heritage Handicap · 6f
76 · GOOD
SELECTION Realign
9/1 EW 1pt EW (2pt total)

Drawn on the favoured low side of a twenty-eight-runner cavalry charge and arriving off a ready win, 9/1 reads as fair each-way in a field this size, with several places on offer, for a yard in strong form, and a routine rise in the weights is the familiar shape of a horse still going the right way.

CONSIDERED Candy
33/1 · 70 GOOD

A front-running type who can use the favoured early pace, a huge price each-way in the same race.

17:35 Golden Gates Stakes · Handicap · 1m2f
69 · GOOD
SELECTION Harmonics
15/2 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)

Lightly raced with the best time figures in the race and a first run in a handicap, exactly the kind of unexposed type a powerful yard places a contest like this with, 15/2 is workable enough in a competitive sixteen-runner heat, and a smart novice success last time says there is more to come.

CONSIDERED Amadeus Mozart
16/1 · 69 GOOD

Level with the selection on our scoring, but his case leans on the jockey booking rather than the conditions, so we side with the improver.

18:10 Queen Alexandra Stakes · Conditions · 2m5f
74 · GOOD
SELECTION Illinois
2/1 WIN 1pt WIN

Comfortably the highest rated in the race, dropping out of top company after finishing second in the Gold Cup here, with a tame run last time easily forgiven on unsuitable ground, 2/1 is acceptable for the class act in the field, and the marathon trip on a sound surface brings him right back into his comfort zone.

CONSIDERED French Master
5/1 · 70 GOOD

Last year's winner of this very race, proven over course and distance, the each-way alternative at a bigger price.

THE METHOD

Our eleven-factor scoring with multiple data points behind each. Every runner. Every race. Applied rigorously without exception.

11
Factors applied to every runner in every race, drawn from hard data
15+
Selection rules a runner must pass before being named
15+
Staking rules a selection must pass before being included
7
Considered alternatives surfaced today, for those who want to oppose the selection or build their own play

Today's advised stakes

9PT TOTAL OUTLAY · 8 BETS · 0 PASSES
TIMESELECTIONPRICETYPESTAKE
14:30 Carry The Flag 3/1 WIN 0.5pt WIN
14:30 Savage Mariner 9/1 EW 0.25pt EW (0.5pt total)
15:05 Jan BrueghelNAP 9/2 EW 1pt EW (2pt total)
15:40 Kind Of Blue 18/1 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)
16:20 Catullus 15/2 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)
17:00 RealignNB 9/1 EW 1pt EW (2pt total)
17:35 Harmonics 15/2 EW 0.5pt EW (1pt total)
18:10 Illinois 2/1 WIN 1pt WIN
Total advised stakes
9pts
Edited and published Saturday 20 June 2026, 12:05 BST ·Prices correct at time of writing ·Premium members receive relevant market updates
Our 11-factor scoring, V10·Market integrated · 2 movers noted·an Overlay publication